The economies of the Caribbean part of the Kingdom are vulnerable to a recession in the United States. A U.S. recession leads to a decline in the number of tourists, which has a strong impact on the local economies of all the Caribbean islands. This is the conclusion reached by Mathieu Houpier, Joris Nanne, Koert van Buiren, Raymond Gradus, and Martijn Mak of Economisch Bureau Amsterdam in an article recently published in ESB.

The economies of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao are highly dependent on tourism, particularly from the United States. A crisis in the U.S. causes a sharp decline in the number of tourists. This article quantifies the impact on the local economies of a temporary drop of 25 to 50 percent in visitor numbers, combined with a decrease in tourist spending. The findings show that if the number of visitors from the U.S. were to halve, Bonaire’s GDP would fall by 19 percent and Curaçao’s by 16 percent.

The full contribution by EBA can be read on the ESB website.